๐ด META PULSE โ March 25, 2026 โ CPA spiking, ROAS compressing hard. Attribution lag is a factor, but the trend line needs attention.
Account: MUD (act_548943215677106) ยท Attribution: 7-day click + 1-day view ยท Timezone: America/Los_Angeles ยท Data as of end-of-day March 24
1. Account Snapshot
| Metric | Today (Mar 24) | Yesterday (Mar 23) | 7-Day Avg (Mar 17โ23) | ฮ Today vs 7D | Signal |
|---|
| Spend | $32,593 | $34,101 | $31,744 | +2.7% | Steady |
| Purchases | 255 | 275 | 334 | -23.7% | Attrib lag + compression |
| Revenue | $11,655 | $12,081 | $14,866 | -21.6% | Declining |
| ROAS | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.47 | -23.4% | Well below target |
| CPA | $127.81 | $124.00 | $94.92 | +34.6% | Elevated |
| CPM | $25.12 | $23.53 | $23.92 | +5.0% | Creeping up |
| CTR (link) | 0.76% | 0.74% | 0.74% | +2.7% | Holding |
| Frequency | 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.43 | +8.4% | Watch |
| Implied AOV | $45.71 | $43.93 | $44.51 | +2.7% | Stable |
VP of Growth take: The account is in a rough patch. ROAS has compressed from the 0.50โ0.55 range in late Feb to 0.35โ0.36 the last two days. Some of this is attribution lag (7-day click attribution hasn't fully played out for recent days), but the trend started mid-March and is persistent. CPMs are rising ($25 today vs $19โ20 in late Feb), which means we're paying more to reach the same people. With spend holding steady at ~$32K/day, we're basically spending the same to get less. The mid-March spike (Mar 13โ14 showed 0.73 and 0.66 ROAS) hasn't repeated. Worth considering whether the current creative mix and audience targeting is fatiguing, or if external factors (seasonality, competition) are compressing performance.
30-Day Summary (Feb 23 โ Mar 24)
2. Funnel Analysis (Last 7 Days)
7-day totals from the daily trend data (Mar 18โ24). Funnel conversion rates between each stage:
โ 79.5% โ
โ 229% โ
โ 7.5% โ
โ 54.9% โ
โ 42.6% โ
| Stage | Volume | Stage Conversion | Cost Per Stage | Signal |
|---|
| Link Click | 69,504 | โ | $3.23 | Efficient |
| Landing Page View | 55,226 | 79.5% of clicks | $4.06 | Good LP load rate |
| View Content | 126,587 | >100% (multi-fire pixel) | $1.77 | Pixel multi-firing |
| Add to Cart | 9,469 | 7.5% of VC | $23.69 | Moderate |
| Initiate Checkout | 5,199 | 54.9% of ATC | $43.12 | Healthy cart-to-checkout |
| Purchase | 2,216 | 42.6% of IC | $101.19 | Checkout dropoff worth investigating |
Funnel read: The click-to-LP-view rate (79.5%) is solid โ pages are loading. View Content is multi-firing (showing >100% of LP views), which is normal for Shopify sites with multiple product views per session. The real leakage is from ATC to Purchase: only ~23.4% of people who add to cart actually buy. The checkout-to-purchase rate of 42.6% suggests friction at checkout โ worth checking if there are payment issues, unexpected shipping costs, or cart abandonment patterns to address.
3. Campaign Intelligence (Last 7 Days)
Budget Allocation Analysis
| Campaign | Status | Spend | Spend % | Purchases | Revenue | Rev % | ROAS | CPA | CPM | Signal |
|---|
| conv_all_ABO_scaling_7day | Active | $549,503 | 51.7% | 5,797 | $251,234 | 47.2% | 0.46 | $94.79 | $32.69 | Workhorse, slightly over-indexed on spend |
| conv_og_sales_ASC_top-ads_CPR | Paused | $120,113 | 11.3% | 1,983 | $94,922 | 17.8% | 0.79 | $60.57 | $25.51 | Best efficiency โ why is this paused? |
| conv_og_sales_ASC_top-ads_relaunch | Active | $90,993 | 8.6% | 1,126 | $50,483 | 9.5% | 0.55 | $80.81 | $34.06 | Moderate |
| conv_all_ABO_partnership | Paused | $83,660 | 7.9% | 1,200 | $58,299 | 11.0% | 0.70 | $69.72 | $14.01 | Under-invested vs. revenue share |
| conv_all_ABO_coffee | Active | $72,806 | 6.9% | 680 | $30,032 | 5.6% | 0.41 | $107.07 | $28.43 | Over-invested, weak ROAS |
| TQE - CBO - acq - tCPA | Active | $45,054 | 4.2% | 672 | $31,666 | 6.0% | 0.70 | $67.05 | $18.75 | Efficient, room to scale |
| tof_awr_eng_fyf | Active | $38,522 | 3.6% | 14 | $727 | 0.1% | 0.02 | $2,752 | $3.72 | Awareness play โ not optimized for conversion |
| conv_ALL_ABO_persona_pragmatic | Paused | $23,641 | 2.2% | 200 | $8,762 | 1.6% | 0.37 | $118.21 | $24.18 | Underperforming |
| marpipe_test | Active | $14,631 | 1.4% | 143 | $6,803 | 1.3% | 0.47 | $102.32 | $21.97 | Testing, monitor |
Media buyer take: The biggest signal here is the ASC top-ads CPR campaign โ it's running at 0.79 ROAS with a $60.57 CPA, making it the most efficient campaign in the account by a wide margin. It gets 11.3% of spend but drives 17.8% of revenue. Why is this paused? Similarly, the partnership campaign shows 0.70 ROAS at only $14 CPM โ extremely cheap reach with solid conversion. The TQE CBO campaign is also punching above its weight at 0.70 ROAS. Meanwhile, the main scaling campaign (51.7% of spend) is running at 0.46 ROAS and $32.69 CPMs. If efficiency matters right now, there's clear room to redistribute budget toward the higher-performing campaigns.
Top Ad Sets by ROAS (min $500 spend)
| Ad Set | Campaign | Spend | Purchases | ROAS | CPA | Freq |
|---|
| TQE - Original Starter Kit - TQE Headlines | TQE CBO | $5,739 | 105 | 0.92 | $54.66 | 2.34 |
| partnerships_Video-COF-UGC-ValeriaHinojosa | Partnership | $1,024 | 24 | 1.27 | $42.66 | 2.19 |
| partnerships_Video-COF-UGC-TessaSmith (scaling) | Scaling | $1,880 | 37 | 0.91 | $50.81 | 2.01 |
| partnerships_vallaforge_andyanderson | Partnership | $7,183 | 168 | 1.08 | $42.75 | 4.62 |
| TQE - Nourish - NewCustomer | TQE CBO | $8,295 | 138 | 0.80 | $60.11 | 4.26 |
Fatigue Warning: Ad Sets with Frequency > 3.5
| Ad Set | Campaign | Spend | Freq | ROAS | Signal |
|---|
| TQE - Original Starter Kit - UGC | TQE CBO | $31,020 | 4.72 | 0.64 | Saturated |
| partnerships_vallaforge_andyanderson | Partnership | $7,183 | 4.62 | 1.08 | High freq but still converting |
| partnerships_TJL (Trader Joe's) | Partnership | $31,493 | 4.01 | 0.72 | Watch |
| TQE - Nourish | TQE CBO | $8,295 | 4.26 | 0.80 | Getting saturated |
4. Creative Intelligence (Last 7 Days)
Top 5 Ads by Efficiency (ROAS ร Spend-Weighted)
These are the ads driving the most efficient revenue at meaningful scale.
#1: conv_og_sales_ABO_past_topperformers_SHA_MushroomCoffeeComparison (ASC CPR)
๐ฐ $45,536
ROAS: 0.68
๐ 666 purchases
CPA: $68.37
CTR: 0.84%
CPM: $30.25
"My focus throughout the day is phenomenal with this stuff. ~ Verified Customer..."
Title: Get $20 off & a free frother
Quality: 4/3/4 (Organic/Engagement/Conversion)
Why it works: Founder-style "mushroom coffee comparison" format with a verified customer testimonial hook. The social proof + comparison angle drives consideration. This is the account's most reliable high-volume converter โ 666 purchases at $68 CPA in 7 days.
#2: Founder vs. Mushroom Coffee (main scaling ad)
๐ฐ $310,429
ROAS: 0.44
๐ 3,184 purchases
CPA: $97.50
CTR: 1.06%
Hook: 29.5%
"MUD\WTR is powered by functional mushrooms, superfoods and spices..."
Title: Get $20 off & a free frother
Quality: 4/3/4 ยท 3-sec video views: 2.9M
The workhorse: This single ad is absorbing $310K of the $549K scaling campaign spend (56%). It's driving 3,184 purchases โ massive volume โ but at a $97.50 CPA and 0.44 ROAS. The hook rate (29.5%) is decent but not exceptional. This ad is carrying the account on volume but dragging down blended efficiency. It may be reaching diminishing returns at this spend level.
#3: conv_sales_ASC_jan14sprint_OG_STATICS37 (ASC CPR)
๐ฐ $10,929
ROAS: 0.86
๐ 186 purchases
CPA: $58.76
CTR: 0.44%
Title: Get 40% off + free frother
Quality: 4/3/5 (strong conversion ranking)
Why it works: Static ad with "40% off" โ a stronger offer than the $20 off in other ads. The 5/5 conversion ranking from Meta confirms the algorithm sees this as highly convertible. Lower CTR but much higher conversion rate suggests this ad attracts higher-intent clickers.
#4: TQE - MUD/WTR VS RYZE Headline4 (TQE CBO)
๐ฐ $2,428
ROAS: 0.86
๐ 44 purchases
CPA: $55.18
CTR: 0.97%
Title: MUD\WTR vs RYZE: Which Is Better?
"Looking for a coffee alternative that won't wreck your energy levels? We compared..."
Why it works: The vs. RYZE comparison angle is a strong consideration-stage format. All 4 headline variants are running at 0.85โ1.23 ROAS โ the best efficiency cluster in the account. This concept has serious scaling potential at $55 CPA.
#5: AI-this-shit-expensive (ASC relaunch)
๐ฐ $10,994
ROAS: 0.72
๐ 165 purchases
CPA: $66.63
CTR: 0.59%
Title: Get $20 off & a free frother
Quality: 4/3/4
Why it works: The "expensive" value angle + price anchoring. This ad acknowledges the price objection head-on, which builds trust and pre-qualifies buyers willing to pay premium.
Bottom 5 Ads (Spending but Not Converting)
| Ad | Spend | ROAS | CPA | Purchases | Issue |
|---|
| Moshi Managed - Mar 9 | $2,843 | 0.06 | $948 | 3 | Moshi AI agent burning cash |
| Moshi Managed - Mar 11 | $2,837 | 0.00 | n/a | 0 | Zero purchases โ kill immediately |
| Moshi Sophia Ad - Mar 10 | $1,214 | 0.00 | n/a | 0 | Sending to Instagram, not a sales page |
| conv_coffee_ABO_testing_launch-statics_Coffee-Conv-Event | $1,553 | 0.22 | $222 | 7 | Weak conversion event optimization |
| conv_coffee_ABO_testing_Coffee_Founder_Decaf | $1,564 | 0.25 | $142 | 11 | Decaf angle not resonating |
Urgent: The "Moshi Managed" campaign has spent $6,894 in 7 days with 3 total purchases and a $2,298 CPA. These ads are sending traffic to Instagram (not a sales landing page). This looks like an automated tool creating and spending on ads without proper conversion optimization. Recommend pausing immediately โ this is pure waste.
Top Efficiency Cluster: ROAS Leaders (min $500 spend)
| Ad | Spend | ROAS | CPA | Purchases | Creative |
|---|
| BrainFog_OG persona focus | $884 | 2.67 | $23.26 | 38 | View |
| partnerships_vallaforge (Andy Anderson) | $1,293 | 1.71 | $26.93 | 48 | View |
| Founder Iced Recipe (variant) | $2,485 | 1.53 | $30.68 | 81 | View |
| Can't Afford_OG_Adapt (ASC CPR) | $2,979 | 1.30 | $41.37 | 72 | View |
| ASC_jan14sprint_OG_40%_OFF_STATICsquare-5 | $4,177 | 1.26 | $43.06 | 97 | View |
| partnerships_Matcha_Val | $2,195 | 1.30 | $37.20 | 59 | View |
Creative strategist take: The BrainFog persona ad is the efficiency outlier โ 2.67 ROAS at $23 CPA. It's only getting $884 in spend, which likely means it's in a paused or low-budget ad set. The common thread among top performers: persona-specific angles (brain fog, can't afford, iced recipe) and partnership/influencer content dramatically outperform the generic founder comparison ads on a per-dollar basis. The 40% off static is also notable โ stronger offer = stronger conversion.
Hook Performance Leaderboard (Thumbstop Rate)
3-second video views รท impressions. These hooks stop the scroll โ even if they don't all convert.
| Ad | Hook Rate | Spend | ROAS | Purchases | Creative |
|---|
| FYF PSA: Brain on Coffee | 79.3% | $6,688 | 0.00 | 0 | View |
| FYF PSA: Learned From You | 73.8% | $5,817 | 0.03 | 3 | View |
| FYF Costco | 69.4% | $5,341 | 0.00 | 0 | View |
| FYF: Right Now in America | 66.8% | $3,520 | 0.02 | 1 | View |
| Lyon Recipes OG 9x16 | 59.9% | $2,876 | 0.35 | 25 | View |
Hook insight: The Fix Your Fix PSA-style ads are absolute scroll-stoppers (65โ79% hook rates โ industry avg is ~25%). They're doing their job as awareness/engagement plays. The Lyon Recipes ad is the interesting one โ 60% hook rate AND it converts (25 purchases, 0.35 ROAS). That hook format combined with a conversion-optimized structure could be a powerful new creative direction.
5. Placement & Audience Insights (Last 7 Days)
Placement Performance
| Placement | Spend % | CPM | CTR | CPA | ROAS | Signal |
|---|
| FB Reels | 31.6% | $21.07 | 0.64% | $95.39 | 0.95 | Volume + decent ROAS |
| FB Feed | 28.9% | $19.96 | 0.63% | $82.65 | 1.14 | Best ROAS at scale |
| IG Reels | 18.3% | $20.74 | 0.57% | $102.78 | 0.84 | Higher CPA than FB |
| IG Feed | 11.2% | $34.41 | 0.84% | $88.42 | 1.03 | High CPM but converts well |
| IG Stories | 5.9% | $34.64 | 1.31% | $93.98 | 1.01 | Strong CTR |
| FB Reels Overlay | 0.5% | $1.71 | 0.21% | $21.87 | 4.31 | ๐ฅ Massive arbitrage |
| FB In-Stream Video | 1.0% | $10.96 | 1.12% | $48.65 | 1.84 | ๐ฅ Under-leveraged |
| FB Right Column | 0.04% | $1.90 | 0.04% | $35.35 | 4.83 | ๐ฅ Tiny but incredible efficiency |
| FB Search | 0.08% | $8.90 | 0.52% | $38.32 | 2.23 | High intent placement |
Placement arbitrage: FB Reels Overlay ($1.71 CPM, 4.31 ROAS) and FB Right Column ($1.90 CPM, 4.83 ROAS) are the most efficient placements by far, but they're getting <1% of spend. FB In-Stream Video at $48.65 CPA is also extremely efficient. These are mostly auto-allocated by Meta's algorithm, but if there's a way to nudge more delivery toward these placements, the blended CPA would improve significantly.
Demographic Performance
| Age ร Gender | Spend % | CPA | ROAS | Purchases | Signal |
|---|
| 55-64 Female | 10.9% | $82.22 | 1.16 | 1,396 | Most efficient segment |
| 35-44 Female | 11.4% | $86.34 | 1.10 | 1,389 | Strong |
| 45-54 Female | 11.6% | $81.76 | 1.09 | 1,500 | Highest volume female |
| 35-44 Male | 12.5% | $88.45 | 1.06 | 1,486 | Solid |
| 45-54 Male | 10.1% | $84.68 | 1.05 | 1,252 | Steady |
| 55-64 Male | 7.4% | $91.61 | 1.01 | 851 | Moderate |
| 65+ Female | 9.1% | $88.75 | 1.01 | 1,084 | Volume opportunity |
| 25-34 Female | 6.4% | $98.09 | 0.99 | 691 | Below breakeven |
| 25-34 Male | 10.3% | $98.61 | 0.89 | 1,099 | High spend, low return |
| 65+ Male | 5.2% | $97.75 | 0.89 | 562 | Inefficient |
| 18-24 Male | 3.0% | $99.55 | 0.85 | 316 | Weak |
| 18-24 Female | 1.3% | $113.79 | 0.74 | 121 | Worst CPA |
Demographic read: Women 35-64 are the efficiency sweet spot โ all three cohorts are above 1.0 ROAS. The 25-34 cohort (both genders) is running below breakeven despite getting 16.7% of total spend. The 18-24 segment is the weakest performer at $107+ CPA and sub-0.85 ROAS. If the algorithm is over-indexing toward younger demos, there may be targeting adjustments worth exploring.
6. Landing Page & Destination Analysis
| Destination | Ads | Spend | Purchases | CPA | ROAS | Signal |
|---|
| mudwtr.com/pages/rise-2 | 98 | $635,990 | 7,425 | $85.63 | 0.52 | Primary LP โ massive volume |
| Unknown (no dest URL) | 93 | $181,420 | 1,790 | $101.35 | 0.46 | Missing tracking |
| mudwtr.com/pages/compare-listicle-og | 6 | $70,882 | 741 | $95.66 | 0.45 | Comparison page underperforming |
| mudwtr.com/pages/rise-2-coffee | 60 | $67,274 | 755 | $89.11 | 0.51 | Coffee LP โ similar to OG |
| mudwtr.com/pages/self-care-ritual | 4 | $16,833 | 280 | $60.12 | 0.77 | ๐ฅ Best converting LP |
| mudwtr.com/.../nourish-starter-kit | 3 | $16,888 | 142 | $118.93 | 0.51 | High CPA for Nourish |
| mudwtr.com/.../matcha-starter-kit | 4 | $2,904 | 47 | $61.79 | 0.78 | Small but efficient |
| mudwtr.com/pages/nourish | 1 | $2,542 | 42 | $60.52 | 1.02 | ๐ฅ Only LP above breakeven |
Landing page insight: The
/pages/self-care-ritual LP is converting at
$60 CPA and 0.77 ROAS โ significantly better than the primary /rise-2 page ($86 CPA, 0.52 ROAS). The
/pages/nourish LP is the only one above breakeven at 1.02 ROAS. With $636K going to /rise-2, even a small routing test shifting 10-20% of traffic to /self-care-ritual could meaningfully improve blended CPA. The /compare-listicle-og page is underperforming despite getting $71K in spend โ the comparison format may be converting browsers who don't buy.
7. Strategic Considerations
๐ฅ THE MOSHI PROBLEM: The "Moshi Managed Sales Campaign DO NOT EDIT" has burned $6,894 in 7 days with 3 total purchases and ads pointing to Instagram instead of sales pages. This is an automated tool generating wasteful spend with zero conversion optimization. โ Worth considering: Pause this campaign immediately. At the current burn rate, that's ~$30K/month in pure waste โ enough to fund an entire new creative testing sprint.
๐ THE ASC TOP-ADS CPR OPPORTUNITY: This paused campaign ran at 0.79 ROAS with $60 CPAs โ nearly 2x the efficiency of the main scaling campaign. It gets 11.3% of spend but drives 17.8% of revenue. โ Worth considering: Reactivating this campaign and scaling it to 15-20% of budget. If unit economics hold, shifting $50K/week from the scaling campaign to ASC CPR could yield ~$15K more in weekly revenue at the same spend.
๐งช THE VS. RYZE ANGLE: All 4 TQE "MUD/WTR vs RYZE" headline variants are running at 0.85โ1.23 ROAS with $44โ57 CPAs โ the best efficiency cluster in the entire account. They're only getting ~$6K in combined spend. โ Worth considering: This is a proven concept that deserves its own scaling ad set. The comparison/competitive angle is clearly resonating with high-intent audiences. Build 3-5 more variants (video, UGC, different headlines) and give them real budget.
๐ฏ THE LANDING PAGE GAP: /pages/self-care-ritual converts at $60 CPA (vs $86 for /rise-2) but only 4 ads send traffic there. The /pages/nourish page is the only one above breakeven ROAS. Meanwhile, /rise-2 absorbs $636K and converts at 0.52 ROAS. โ Worth considering: Running a structured LP test. Duplicate the top 5 ads and split traffic between /rise-2 and /self-care-ritual. If the CPA gap holds at scale, routing just 20% of the $636K spend ($127K) to the better LP could save ~$33K in CPA costs over the same period.
โก THE CREATIVE CONCENTRATION RISK: One single ad (Founder vs Mushroom Coffee) is absorbing $310K of $549K scaling spend (56%). It's driving 3,184 purchases but at a declining 0.44 ROAS. The account's performance is overly dependent on this one creative. โ Worth considering: Accelerating creative testing velocity. The BrainFog ad (2.67 ROAS, $23 CPA) and the Iced Recipe ad (1.53 ROAS) show that persona-specific and recipe-format angles dramatically outperform the generic comparison ad. Build a pipeline of 5-10 new concepts around these winning angles to reduce single-creative dependency.